Hedonic Forecasting

Achieving one goal gives birth to the next goal

Every now and then I come across a term that has me rewind, reread or quickly take note. Hedonic forecasting was just that. I’ve used the concept of the hedonic treadmill for years, but this? Research, contemplation and application ensued.

Achieving one goal gives birth to the next goal. It's an endless cycle that can leave even the most successful people feeling empty.

You've probably experienced this yourself. You work toward something for months or years, finally achieve it, feel great for a brief moment, then find yourself asking, "Now what?" This isn't a personal failing—it's the hedonic treadmill in action.

The Hedonic Treadmill

The hedonic treadmill describes our tendency to return to a baseline level of happiness despite positive or negative events. You land that promotion, buy the dream house, or cross the finish line of your epic event, and the joy fades faster than you expected. The intensity is often less than you imagined, too. Now what? What’s next?

When I coach clients, I frequently explore this concept when we dig into the "deeper why" behind their goals. Are they chasing something they truly want, or something they think they should want? The treadmill is brutal—it can dull the fulfillment from almost any achievement.

Hedonic Forecasting

If we know the treadmill exists, why don't we plan better for how we'll feel after achieving our goals? Actually, we do try—it's called hedonic forecasting, our ability to predict how happy future events will make us.

The problem? We're terrible at it.

Hedonic forecasting could be incredibly useful. If we could accurately predict our future feelings, we'd make better daily decisions aligned with our long-term goals. We could even enjoy early access to future pleasure—think about the anticipation before a great vacation or the pride you feel when telling others what you're training for.

Unfortunately, researchers have found we basically see our future selves as strangers. No wonder we're terrible at predicting what will actually make us happy, especially when life is unpredictable and our moods shift constantly.

A Professional Golfer's Honest Take on Success

Scottie Scheffler, currently the world's top-ranked golfer, recently gave a brutally honest press conference about the fleeting nature of his tournament wins:

"It feels like you work your whole life to celebrate winning a tournament for, like, a few minutes... You win it, you celebrate, get to hug my family... It's such an amazing moment. And then it's like, okay, now what are we going to eat for dinner?"

He continued: "There are a lot of people that make it to what they thought was going to fulfill them in life, and then you get there and all of a sudden you get to number one in the world, and they're like, what's the point?"

Scheffler's reflection perfectly captures what psychologists call the "arrival fallacy"—the mistaken belief that reaching a long-sought goal will deliver lasting happiness.

….Deliver lasting happiness = Hedonic Forecasting

We suck at Happiness Prediction

Here's why hedonic forecasting fails us:

We get tunnel vision about the big moment. When imagining that finish line or promotion, we zoom in on the event itself and forget that life keeps happening around it. Reality check: daily routines, new challenges, and unexpected experiences quickly shift our emotional focus.

We underestimate how quickly we bounce back (or settle down). We assume both negative events will devastate us longer and positive events will sustain us longer than they actually do. Humans are incredibly adaptable—emotions fade much faster than we expect.

We forget we're built to adapt. Some stoics even suggest "negative visualization"—imagining everything that could go wrong so you're pleasantly surprised by reality. It's an interesting mental exercise, but it highlights how our predictions are often wrong.

Our current mood colors everything. If you're feeling optimistic today, you'll likely inflate how much joy a future event will bring.

The Expectation Trap

Here's the bizarre truth about expectations: we create them ourselves. When reality doesn't match our expectations, we feel disappointed or hurt. But we created those expectations in the first place!!

Think about the absurdity of this cycle.

Happiness essentially equals reality minus expectations. The expectation gap—the difference between what we expect and what actually happens—determines our emotional response. Better outcome than expected? Happiness skyrockets. Worse than expected? Happiness plummets. Key ingredient? Our expectations that we created…(head explodes emoji)

This is hedonic forecasting in action, and it's often working against us.

You can’t get away from yourself by moving from one place to another - Hemingway

Here's what many people don't want to hear: you won't become a different person when you achieve that goal, cross that finish line, or receive that big payout.

Many of us treat ultra-endurance events and major adventures as opportunities to establish a new identity. But you'll still be you on the other side of the event. Despite 42 Ironman finishes, five 100-milers, numerous multi-day adventures, two Olympic Games, and marathons on every continent, I'm still fundamentally me.

Are you expanding yourself, gaining experience that then contributes to the way you see yourself in the world? Of course. We are always creating a new version of ourselves, even from 5 minutes ago (heck, you are different alone from reading this :-). On the other side of meaningful events or powerful experiences is not a new you, but a better you. Growth comes when you face what’s hard. Let’s not confuse a reset with progress.

What gives?

Three strategies that might sound familiar.

Appreciate the journey, not just the destination. I know, I know - you’ve heard it plenty….The process of working toward something often provides more lasting satisfaction than achieving it. I’ve come to point in life where I enjoy everything I do. And I haven’t see a finish line in years…

Constantly adjust your expectations about what the event will deliver. It was never meant to deliver ‘all that’. This isn't pessimism—it's realism. I recommend my athletes set multi-tiered goals. For example:

• finish the event/project/shipping the work

• finish feeling strong, fit and powerful (validating the work and the journey)

• come within a time range you determined days prior, not weeks or months!

• cross a threshold ‘you never expected’. This is the bonus.

Diversify your identity. Don't put all your emotional eggs in one achievement basket. Have multiple sources of meaning and fulfillment in your life. We all have multiple intertwined and unique identities playing out at all times. No one thing can suck that much joy out of you.

I tell my ultra-endurance athletes before their big events: "Remember, the sun will rise again on Monday, the kids will still need their lunches made, emails will be waiting for you, and this window of adventure will close." Enjoy the ride.

Next newsletter: How to ‘Have more sides’, an identity diversification strategy.

Endeavor through Adversity. Avoid Hedonism.

Coach Chris